Probability simulator
See how observed results compare with the chances you set.
Latest result
Ready when you are
See how observed results compare with the chances you set.How it works
- Choose a coin, a fair six-sided die or custom weighted outcomes. For a coin, set the chance of Heads.
- Choose the number of trials and generate. Compare each observed count with its expected count.
- Try another seed with the same settings. Export the trial sequence or the report for a lesson or worksheet.
Expected does not mean guaranteed
Expected counts multiply each outcome probability by the number of trials. A fair coin has an expected 50 Heads in 100 trials, but a particular experiment may produce more or fewer. Trials are independent in the specified model; a run of Tails does not increase the next chance of Heads. The chart compares observations with expectation rather than scoring a draw as fair or unfair.
Your inputs stay with you
Your inputs and generated results stay in this browser. Settings and five recent runs use local storage; clearing browser data removes them. Export a copy to keep it. Hosting may record standard page-request logs, but generated rows and participant names are not sent to the server.
Is this the same as the coin-flip tool?
The coin-flip tool makes a quick everyday choice with cryptographic randomness. This simulator uses a visible repeatable seed and records a complete experiment so you can compare models, explain variation and reproduce a classroom example.
Repeatable test data
The research tools use the versioned xoshiro128** pseudorandom generator with named seed streams. They are intended for small examples and testing, not secrets or certified draws. A recipe records parameters and generator version. Floating-point transforms are rounded to six decimal places; keep exported files when exact cross-platform bytes matter.
Seeds are repeatable. Use the password generator for credentials.