Probability simulator

See how observed results compare with the chances you set.

For the coin, success means Heads. Set 0.5 for equal chances.

One outcome | positive weight per line. Up to 20 different outcomes. A weight of 3 gives three times the chance of 1.

1–1,000 rows. Preview: first 20. Downloads include all rows.

Same seed and settings, same recipe. New seed gives a different sample.

Settings and five recent runs stay in this browser.

Latest result

Ready when you are

See how observed results compare with the chances you set.

Clear recent runs?

This clears the current result and recent runs on this device. Undo can restore them while this page is open.

How it works

  1. Choose a coin, a fair six-sided die or custom weighted outcomes. For a coin, set the chance of Heads.
  2. Choose the number of trials and generate. Compare each observed count with its expected count.
  3. Try another seed with the same settings. Export the trial sequence or the report for a lesson or worksheet.

Expected does not mean guaranteed

Expected counts multiply each outcome probability by the number of trials. A fair coin has an expected 50 Heads in 100 trials, but a particular experiment may produce more or fewer. Trials are independent in the specified model; a run of Tails does not increase the next chance of Heads. The chart compares observations with expectation rather than scoring a draw as fair or unfair.

Your inputs stay with you

Your inputs and generated results stay in this browser. Settings and five recent runs use local storage; clearing browser data removes them. Export a copy to keep it. Hosting may record standard page-request logs, but generated rows and participant names are not sent to the server.

Is this the same as the coin-flip tool?

The coin-flip tool makes a quick everyday choice with cryptographic randomness. This simulator uses a visible repeatable seed and records a complete experiment so you can compare models, explain variation and reproduce a classroom example.

Repeatable test data

The research tools use the versioned xoshiro128** pseudorandom generator with named seed streams. They are intended for small examples and testing, not secrets or certified draws. A recipe records parameters and generator version. Floating-point transforms are rounded to six decimal places; keep exported files when exact cross-platform bytes matter.

Seeds are repeatable. Use the password generator for credentials.

Privacy settings

Choose whether this browser allows optional Google Analytics. We remember your preference for up to 180 days. You can change it here at any time.

Optional analytics is not enabled on this site. No Google Analytics tag is loaded.